Will Petrol Stations Actually Drop Prices When the Excise Cut Kicks In?
The fuel excise has been halved — but stations say they need to sell through existing stock first. Here's why that argument doesn't hold up, according to the ACCC's own data.
The fuel excise cut takes effect tomorrow. From 1 April, the excise drops from 52.6 cents per litre to 26.3 cents — a saving of roughly $19 on a 65-litre tank.
But when will you actually see it at the pump?
The government and industry have both suggested it won't happen overnight. The reasoning sounds fair enough: stations have already paid the full excise on the fuel sitting in their underground tanks. They can't pass on the saving until their next delivery arrives with the lower rate applied.
There's just one problem with that logic. If petrol stations really priced based on what they paid for the fuel in their tanks, prices wouldn't change between deliveries. But they do — every single day.
The ACCC proved this three weeks ago
In the first weekly fuel price monitoring update published during the current crisis, the ACCC found something striking.
After conflict escalated in the Middle East in late February, retail petrol prices at Australian bowsers moved upward almost immediately — on the same day as wholesale price increases, rather than showing the usual lag of seven or more days (Source: ACCC, 13 March 2026).
The ACCC was blunt about what this meant: retailers had increased prices at the pump while selling fuel they had purchased before the conflict at lower prices.
In other words, when costs went up, stations didn't wait until their next delivery to reprice. They did it the same day — on fuel they'd already paid less for.
So which is it? If the fuel in the ground determines the price, the cost shouldn't change between deliveries. But the ACCC's own data shows that stations reprice on existing stock whenever it suits them — specifically, when repricing means higher margins.
Price cycles aren't driven by wholesale costs
This isn't a crisis-specific quirk. The ACCC has long documented that daily price movements at Australian bowsers are a retailer decision, not a cost-driven one.
As the ACCC states plainly on its website: petrol price cycles are the result of pricing decisions made by petrol retailers, and they are not driven by movements in wholesale prices or underlying costs (Source: ACCC).
In Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, and Perth, prices regularly swing by 30 cents per litre or more over the course of a cycle — rising sharply in a day or two, then drifting down over several weeks. These movements happen constantly, regardless of when a station last took a delivery. We covered this in detail in Why Do Petrol Prices Change Every Day.
If stations can move prices up and down daily for competitive reasons, there is no structural barrier to passing on a 26.3 cent excise reduction promptly.
What happened in 2022
We don't have to guess how this will play out. Australia ran exactly this experiment four years ago.
In March 2022, the Morrison government halved the fuel excise from 44.2 cents to 22.1 cents per litre during the Ukraine conflict. The ACCC monitored the pass-through closely and found that in the week following the cut, average daily petrol prices fell by 25 to 27 cents per litre in Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane, by around 31 cents in Adelaide, and by 35 cents in Perth (Source: ACCC, April 2022).
Those drops happened well before every station had cycled through its existing stock. Wholesalers passed the lower excise through immediately, and competitive pressure forced retailers to follow.
The ACCC Chair at the time acknowledged that full excise had already been paid on existing fuel stocks, but still set a clear expectation: retailers should pass on the cut as soon as possible (Source: ACCC, March 2022). And by and large, they did — the ACCC confirmed the savings were being passed through within the first week.
The asymmetry problem
The pattern the ACCC's data reveals is a familiar one in fuel retail. When wholesale costs rise, the increase hits the bowser almost immediately — even though the fuel in the ground was bought at the old, lower price. When costs fall, the saving takes longer to appear, with the "existing stock" argument used to justify the delay.
This dynamic has been observed for years. The ACCC has received over 3,000 consumer and small business reports about fuel pricing since the start of the current crisis, including complaints about multiple price rises in a single day (Source: ACCC, 27 March 2026).
The PM has said the ACCC will continue to monitor fuel prices to help ensure the lower excise rate is fully passed on at the bowser (Source: PM media release, 30 March 2026). The ACCC itself has confirmed it will act decisively if it finds collusive, anti-competitive, or misleading conduct (Source: ACCC, 11 March 2026).
What to watch for this week
Based on the 2022 precedent, here's a rough guide for what to expect:
Capital cities with high-volume stations should see meaningful drops within the first few days of April. These stations cycle through stock quickly and face direct competitive pressure from nearby servos.
Regional and remote areas will likely take longer. Lower volumes mean existing stock sits in the ground for weeks, and there's often less local competition to force prices down. In 2022, the ACCC noted the lag was noticeably longer in regional locations.
Price cycles will complicate things. If your city happens to be at the top of its price cycle when the excise cut lands, prices may drop sharply — but some of that drop is the cycle, not the excise. Conversely, if you're at the bottom of a cycle and prices were about to spike anyway, the excise cut might just soften the spike rather than deliver a visible drop.
How to hold your local servo accountable
The single most effective thing you can do is compare prices before you fill up. When consumers shop around, stations that lag behind on passing through savings lose business to those that move faster. That competitive pressure is ultimately what drives pass-through — not government threats.
The ACCC has specifically encouraged consumers to use fuel price comparison apps and websites to find the best prices during this period (Source: ACCC).
That's what BowserBuddy is built for. Over the coming days, you'll be able to see exactly which stations in your area drop their prices — and which ones don't.