Excise Cut Day 3: Unleaded Past Full Pass-Through, Diesel Stalls
Three days after the excise was halved, U91 has dropped 29.2c/L nationally — 111% of the cut. Every petrol grade has exceeded full pass-through. Diesel hasn't moved since yesterday. State-by-state data inside.
Three days into the fuel excise cut, the story has split in two. Petrol has blown past full pass-through. Diesel has hit a wall.
The national average price of U91 unleaded has dropped 29.2 cents per litre since the day before the cut. That's 111% of the 26.3 cent excise reduction — drivers are saving more than the tax cut alone. On a 65-litre tank, that's $18.98 in savings, exceeding the theoretical maximum from the excise cut itself.
Every petrol grade is now above 100% pass-through. U98 premium leads at 116%, having dropped 30.5 c/L.
This is significantly faster than 2022, when the ACCC found the bulk of the savings took a full week to appear. In three days, petrol is done.
Diesel is a different story entirely — and we'll get to that.
The national picture — Day 1 through Day 3
| Fuel | Before cut (c/L) | Day 1 (c/L) | Day 2 (c/L) | Day 3 (c/L) | Total drop | Pass-through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U91 | 259.3 | 242.0 | 234.3 | 230.1 | 29.2 | 111.0% |
| E10 | 251.5 | 237.9 | 229.6 | 225.3 | 26.2 | 99.6% |
| U95 | 276.2 | 258.6 | 250.8 | 246.9 | 29.3 | 111.4% |
| U98 | 284.1 | 266.1 | 257.9 | 253.6 | 30.5 | 116.0% |
All four petrol grades are above 100%. E10 has surged from 82.3% on Day 2 to 99.6% — essentially the full cut. U91, U95, and U98 have all exceeded 111%.
The above-100% figures aren't stations overcompensating — they reflect the natural price cycle. States that were near their cycle peak when the cut landed (SA, QLD) have seen the cycle's downswing stack on top of the excise reduction. This is good news for drivers regardless of the cause.
Diesel has stalled
This is the headline for diesel: nothing has changed since yesterday.
Diesel Combined sits at 305.7 c/L — the same as Day 2. The total drop remains 16.7 c/L (63.5% pass-through), identical to 24 hours ago.
Breaking it down:
- Standard Diesel has actually risen slightly, from 309.1 c/L on Day 2 to 310.0 c/L — moving in the wrong direction. Pass-through has slipped from 30.8% to 27.8%.
- Premium Diesel improved marginally, from 303.8 to 303.3 c/L — an 85.2% pass-through, up from 83.3%.
The split remains stark. If your local station sells premium diesel, you're getting most of the excise cut. If it sells standard diesel, you're getting barely a quarter.
Global diesel wholesale costs continue to push against the excise relief. Until those costs ease — or competitive pressure forces retailers to absorb the margin hit — diesel drivers won't see the same benefit as petrol drivers.
State by state
Here's how each state and territory is tracking on U91 unleaded, compared to the day before the cut (31 March):
| State | Before cut (c/L) | Day 1 (c/L) | Day 2 (c/L) | Day 3 (c/L) | Total drop (c/L) | Pass-through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA | 260.1 | 237.8 | 230.1 | 225.4 | 34.7 | 131.9% |
| QLD | 259.8 | 239.3 | 230.5 | 226.5 | 33.3 | 126.6% |
| VIC | 260.2 | 248.7 | 238.5 | 233.9 | 26.3 | 100.0% |
| WA | 255.5 | 249.1 | 236.9 | 232.5 | 23.0 | 87.5% |
| NT | 269.5 | 257.8 | 252.5 | 250.1 | 19.4 | 73.8% |
| NSW | 241.0 | 235.9 | 233.7 | 227.0 | 14.0 | 53.2% |
| ACT | 235.4 | 239.7 | 227.3 | 224.4 | 11.0 | 41.8% |
| TAS | 233.7 | 233.8 | 230.8 | 230.7 | 3.0 | 11.4% |
The overachievers
South Australia is now at 131.9% pass-through — a 34.7 cent drop, or $22.56 less on a 65-litre tank compared to three days ago. That's almost the full theoretical maximum of the combined 32c/L cut (including the additional 5.7c/L), even though the additional cut hasn't formally reached pumps yet. The natural price cycle is doing the heavy lifting alongside the excise.
Queensland isn't far behind at 126.6%, with prices down 33.3 cents.
Victoria hits 100%
Victoria has reached exactly 100.0% pass-through — prices have dropped by 26.3 c/L, the full excise cut to the cent. VIC was at 82.5% on Day 2, so the final 17.5 percentage points came through on Day 3. VIC's regulated daily price caps may have helped accelerate the adjustment.
WA and NT making progress
Western Australia is at 87.5%, up from 70.7% on Day 2. WA's FuelWatch system means price changes take an extra cycle to fully appear, so this strong momentum should continue.
Northern Territory has reached 73.8%, up from 64.6%. Progress is steady, though the NT's smaller market and higher baseline costs mean it's tracking behind the capital-city states.
Still catching up
NSW jumped from 27.0% to 53.2% — the biggest single-day improvement in percentage terms. NSW prices were near their cycle trough when the cut landed, leaving less room for the excise to show as a drop. But the gap is closing quickly.
ACT is at 41.8%, up from 28.5%. With only around 30 stations, the ACT's small sample size makes daily figures volatile.
Tasmania remains the laggard at 11.4% — barely moving. TAS had the lowest pre-cut prices in the country (233.7 c/L) and appears to be in the deepest part of its price cycle. There's still room for the excise cut to appear, but it's being obscured by an already-low base.
The 32c/L question
Yesterday, states and territories agreed to fund a further 5.7c/L excise cut, bringing the total reduction to 32c/L. That additional cut hasn't visibly reached pump prices yet — if it had, we'd expect to see diesel moving too, and it isn't.
All pass-through figures in this series are measured against the original 26.3c/L cut. Once the additional 5.7c/L is confirmed in pump prices, we'll shift to measuring against the full 32c/L benchmark.
What happens next
The petrol story is essentially over — pass-through has exceeded 100% nationally, and the remaining states (NSW, ACT, TAS) should catch up as their price cycles reset. The next question for petrol is whether prices settle at these levels or whether the natural cycle pushes them back up.
Diesel is the one to watch this week. Three days in with no Day 2-to-Day 3 improvement is concerning. The ACCC's enhanced $100 million penalty regime and ongoing investigations into the major retailers should be putting pressure on diesel margins, but global wholesale costs are a headwind that enforcement alone can't fix.
We'll keep tracking this daily:
- Day 7 (7 April) — the one-week picture
- Day 14 (14 April) — two-week progress report
- Day 30 (1 May) — the monthly report card
In the meantime, use BowserBuddy to find the cheapest fuel near you. Even with petrol past full pass-through nationally, there's still a 20+ cent spread between the cheapest and dearest station in most areas.
How we calculated this
This analysis uses BowserBuddy's own price tracking data across all eight states and territories. We compute a station-count-weighted daily average from price history records, with each state's data bucketed into local calendar dates using its IANA timezone (e.g. Australia/Sydney for NSW, Australia/Perth for WA).
Comparison period: All figures are compared to March 31 (the last full day before the cut took effect). Day 1 and Day 2 figures are also shown to illustrate the daily progression. Day 1 figures use end-of-day averages (as corrected in our Day 2 report), not the original late-afternoon snapshot from the Day 1 post.
Pass-through percentage: Calculated as the price drop divided by 26.3 c/L (the ex-GST excise cut). Pass-through above 100% is possible when the excise cut coincides with a natural price cycle decline. All figures in this post measure against the original 26.3c/L cut, not the expanded 32c/L.
What's excluded: Closed stations, out-of-stock prices, suspected reporting errors, and prices outside reasonable bounds are all filtered before averaging. For full details on our data quality approach, see the Data Transparency section on our prices dashboard.
Diesel Combined is a station-count-weighted blend of standard Diesel and Premium Diesel — reflecting the fact that most stations sell one or the other, and drivers take what's available.
Sample sizes: Today's national averages are based on approximately 29,500 U91 price reports and 42,700 diesel price reports across all eight states and territories.